The King Laboratory
of Theoretical Ecology & Evolution
at the University of Michigan


Selected Publications.

Click on any citation to view the abstract.

N. Wale, M. J. Jones, D. G. Sim, A. F. Read, and A. A. King (2019) Breaking down defenses: Quantitative analysis of malaria infection dynamics reveals distinct immune defense strategies. bioRxiv : 648428. 
M. Domenech de Cellès, P. Rohani, and A. A. King (2019) Duration of immunity and effectiveness of diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis vaccines in children. JAMA Pediatrics in press 
C. Bretó, E. L. Ionides, and A. A. King (2019) Panel data analysis via mechanistic models. Journal of the American Statistical Association in press 
M. Domenech de Cellès, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2018) Response to Comment on “The impact of past vaccination coverage and immunity on pertussis resurgence”. Science Translational Medicine 10(472): eaau9627. 
M. Domenech de Cellès, F. M. G. Magpantay, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2018) The impact of past vaccination coverage and immunity on pertussis resurgence. Science Translational Medicine 10(434): eaaj1748. 
A. I. Bento, M. A. Riolo, Y. H. Choi, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2018) Core pertussis transmission groups in England and Wales: A tale of two eras. Vaccine 36(9): 1160–1166. 
X. Du, A. A. King, R. J. Woods, and M. Pascual (2017) Evolution-informed forecasting of seasonal influenza A (H3N2). Science Translational Medicine 9(413): eaan5325. 
R. A. Smith, E. L. Ionides, and A. A. King (2017) Infectious Disease Dynamics Inferred from Genetic Data via Sequential Monte Carlo. Molecular Biology and Evolution 34(8): 2065–2084. 
T. Baracchini, A. A. King, M. J. Bouma, X. Rodó, E. Bertuzzo, and M. Pascual (2017) Seasonality in cholera dynamics: a rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns in endemic areas. Advances in Water Resources 108C : 357–366. 
E. L. Ionides, C. Breto, J. Park, R. A. Smith, and A. A. King (2017) Monte Carlo profile confidence intervals for dynamic systems. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 14 : 20170126. 
P. P. Martinez, R. C. Reiner, B. A. Cash, X. Rodó, M. Shahjahan Mondal, M. Roy, M. Yunus, A. S. G. Faruque, S. Huq, A. A. King, and M. Pascual (2017) Cholera forecast for Dhaka, Bangladesh, with the 2015–2016 El Niño: lessons learned. PLoS ONE 12 : e0172355. 
J. Perez-Saez, A. A. King, A. Rinaldo, M. Yunus, A. S. G. Faruque, and M. Pascual (2017) Climate-driven endemic cholera is modulated by human mobility in a megacity. Advances in Water Resources 108C : 367–376. 
A. A. King, D. Nguyen, and E. L. Ionides (2016) Statistical inference for partially observed Markov processes via the R package pomp. Journal of Statistical Software 69(12): 1–43. 
M. Domenech de Cellès, F. M. G. Magpantay, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2016) The pertussis enigma: reconciling epidemiology, immunology and evolution. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B 283(1822): 20152309. 
F. M. G. Magpantay, M. Domenech de Cellès, P. Rohani, and A. A. King (2016) Pertussis immunity and epidemiology: mode and duration of vaccine-induced immunity. Parasitology 143 : 835–849. 
A. A. King, M. Domenech de Cellès, F. M. G. Magpantay, and P. Rohani (2015) Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B 282(1806): 20150347. 
C. E. Cressler, M. A. Butler, and A. A. King (2015) Detecting adaptive evolution in phylogenetic comparative analysis using the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model. Systematic Biology 64(6): 953–968. 
M. Martinez-Bakker, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2015) Unraveling the transmission ecology of polio. PLoS Biology 13(6): e1002172. 
S. Shrestha, O. N. Bjørnstad, and A. A. King (2014) Evolution of acuteness in pathogen metapopulations: conflicts between “classical” and invasion-persistence trade-offs. Theoretical Ecology 7(3): 299–311. 
M. Domenech de Cellès, M. A. Riolo, F. M. G. Magpantay, P. Rohani, and A. A. King (2014) Epidemiological evidence for herd immunity induced by acellular pertussis vaccines. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A. 111(7): E716–E717. 
F. Magpantay, M. Riolo, M. de Cellès, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2014) Epidemiological consequences of imperfect vaccines for immunizing infections. SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 74 : 1810–1830. 
M. Martinez-Bakker, K. M. Bakker, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2014) Human birth seasonality: latitudinal gradient and interplay with childhood disease dynamics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B 281(1783): 20132438. 
R. C. Reiner, Jr, S. T. Stoddard, B. M. Forshey, A. A. King, A. M. Ellis, A. L. Lloyd, K. C. Long, C. Rocha, S. Vilcarromero, H. Astete, I. Bazan, A. Lenhart, G. M. Vazquez-Prokopec, V. A. Paz-Soldan, P. J. McCall, U. Kitron, J. P. Elder, E. S. Halsey, A. C. Morrison, T. J. Kochel, and T. W. Scott (2014) Time-varying, serotype-specific force of infection of dengue virus. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A. 111(26): E2694–E2702. 
J. S. Lavine, A. A. King, V. Andreasen, and O. N. Bjørnstad (2013) Immune boosting explains regime-shifts in prevaccine-era pertussis dynamics. PLoS ONE 8(8): e72086. 
S. D. Peacor and C. E. Cressler (2013) The implications of adaptive prey behaviour for ecological communities: a review of current theory. In: Trait-Mediated Indirect Interactions: Linking Evolution, Community, and Ecosystem (edited by T. Ohgushi, O. Schmitz, and R. D. Holt) : 131–160. 
M. A. Riolo, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2013) Can vaccine legacy explain the British pertussis resurgence?. Vaccine 31(49): 5903–5908. 
R. C. Reiner, A. A. King, M. Emch, M. Yunus, A. S. G. Faruque, and M. Pascual (2012) Highly localized sensitivity to climate forcing drives endemic cholera in a megacity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A. 109(6): 2033–2036. 
C. E. Cressler (2011) Multi-trait selection and the evolution of the integrated phenotype. Ph.D. thesis, University of Michigan. 
S. Shrestha, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2011) Statistical inference for multi-pathogen systems. PLoS Computational Biology 7(8): e1002135. 
E. L. Ionides, A. Bhadra, Y. Atchadé, and A. A. King (2011) Iterated filtering. Annals of Statistics 39(3): 1776–1802. 
J. S. Lavine, A. A. King, and O. N. Bjørnstad (2011) Natural immune boosting in pertussis dynamics and the potential for long-term vaccine failure. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A. 108(17): 7259–7264. 
D. He, E. L. Ionides, and A. A. King (2010) Plug-and-play inference for disease dynamics: measles in large and small populations as a case study. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 7 : 271–283. 
C. E. Cressler, A. A. King, and E. E. Werner (2010) Interactions between behavioral and life-history trade-offs in the evolution of integrated predator-defense plasticity. The American Naturalist 176(3): 276–288. 
P. Rohani, X. Zhong, and A. A. King (2010) Contact network structure explains the changing epidemiology of pertussis. Science 330(6006): 982–985. 
P. Rohani and A. A. King (2010) Never mind the length, feel the quality: the impact of long-term epidemiological data sets on theory, application and policy. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 25(10): 611–618. 
A. A. King, S. Shrestha, E. T. Harvill, and O. N. Bjørnstad (2009) Evolution of acute infections and the invasion-persistence trade-off. The American Naturalist 173(4): 446–455. 
S. Shrestha (2009) Different levels of host-pathogen interactions and consequences for the pathogen life history evolution. Ph.D. thesis, University of Michigan. 
A. A. King, E. L. Ionides, M. Pascual, and M. J. Bouma (2008) Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics. Nature 454(7206): 877–880. 
E. L. Ionides, C. Bretó, and A. A. King (2007) Modeling disease dynamics: cholera as a case study. In: Statistical Advances in the Biomedical Sciences (edited by A. Biswas, S. Datta, J. Fine, and M. Segal) 
E. L. Ionides, C. Bretó, and A. A. King (2006) Inference for nonlinear dynamical systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A. 103(49): 18438–18443. 

Selected publications by lab alumni.


© 2019 Aaron A. King
3068 Biological Sciences Building
1105 North University Avenue
Ann Arbor MI 48109-1085 USA