The King Laboratory
of Theoretical Ecology & Evolution
at the University of Michigan


Selected Publications.

R. A. Smith, E. L. Ionides, and A. A. King (2017) Infectious disease dynamics inferred from genetic data via sequential Monte Carlo. Molecular Biology and Evolution 34(8): 2065–2084.  Abstract DOI
T. Baracchini, A. A. King, M. J. Bouma, X. Rodó, E. Bertuzzo, and M. Pascual (2017) Seasonality in cholera dynamics: a rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns in endemic areas. Advances in Water Resources 108C: 357–366.  Abstract DOI
E. L. Ionides, C. Breto, J. Park, R. A. Smith, and A. A. King (2017) Monte Carlo profile confidence intervals for dynamic systems. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 14: 20170126.  Abstract DOI
J. Perez-Saez, A. A. King, A. Rinaldo, M. Yunus, A. S. Faruque, and M. Pascual (2017) Climate-driven endemic cholera is modulated by human mobility in a megacity. Advances in Water Resources 108C: 367–376.  Abstract DOI
A. A. King, D. Nguyen, and E. L. Ionides (2016) Statistical inference for partially observed Markov processes via the R package pomp. Journal of Statistical Software 69(12): 1–43.  Abstract DOI
M. Domenech de Cellès, F. M. G. Magpantay, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2016) The pertussis enigma: reconciling epidemiology, immunology and evolution. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B 283(1822): 20152309.  Abstract DOI
F. M. G. Magpantay, M. Domenech de Cellès, P. Rohani, and A. A. King (2016) Pertussis immunity and epidemiology: mode and duration of vaccine-induced immunity. Parasitology 143: 835–849.  Abstract DOI
A. A. King, M. Domenech de Cellès, F. M. G. Magpantay, and P. Rohani (2015) Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B 282(1806): 20150347.  Abstract DOI
C. E. Cressler, M. A. Butler, and A. A. King (2015) Detecting adaptive evolution in phylogenetic comparative analysis using the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model. Systematic Biology 64(6): 953–968.  Abstract DOI
M. Martinez-Bakker, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2015) Unraveling the transmission ecology of polio. PLoS Biology 13(6): e1002172.  Abstract DOI
S. Shrestha, O. N. Bjørnstad, and A. A. King (2014) Evolution of acuteness in pathogen metapopulations: conflicts between “classical” and invasion-persistence trade-offs. Theoretical Ecology 7(3): 299–311.  Abstract DOI
M. Domenech de Cellès, M. A. Riolo, F. M. G. Magpantay, P. Rohani, and A. A. King (2014) Epidemiological evidence for herd immunity induced by acellular pertussis vaccines. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A. 111(7): E716–E717.  Abstract DOI
F. Magpantay, M. Riolo, M. de Cellès, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2014) Epidemiological consequences of imperfect vaccines for immunizing infections. SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 74: 1810–1830.  Abstract DOI
M. Martinez-Bakker, K. M. Bakker, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2014) Human birth seasonality: latitudinal gradient and interplay with childhood disease dynamics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B 281(1783): 20132438.  Abstract DOI
R. C. Reiner, Jr, S. T. Stoddard, B. M. Forshey, A. A. King, A. M. Ellis, A. L. Lloyd, K. C. Long, C. Rocha, S. Vilcarromero, H. Astete, I. Bazan, A. Lenhart, G. M. Vazquez-Prokopec, V. A. Paz-Soldan, P. J. McCall, U. Kitron, J. P. Elder, E. S. Halsey, A. C. Morrison, T. J. Kochel, and T. W. Scott (2014) Time-varying, serotype-specific force of infection of dengue virus. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A. 111(26): E2694–E2702.  Abstract DOI
J. S. Lavine, A. A. King, V. Andreasen, and O. N. Bjørnstad (2013) Immune boosting explains regime-shifts in prevaccine-era pertussis dynamics. PLoS ONE 8(8): e72086.  Abstract DOI
S. D. Peacor and C. E. Cressler (2013) The implications of adaptive prey behaviour for ecological communities: a review of current theory. In: Trait-Mediated Indirect Interactions: Linking Evolution, Community, and Ecosystem (edited by T. Ohgushi, O. Schmitz, and R. D. Holt) 131–160. 
M. A. Riolo, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2013) Can vaccine legacy explain the British pertussis resurgence?. Vaccine 31(49): 5903–5908.  Abstract DOI
R. C. Reiner, A. A. King, M. Emch, M. Yunus, A. S. G. Faruque, and M. Pascual (2012) Highly localized sensitivity to climate forcing drives endemic cholera in a megacity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A. 109(6): 2033–2036.  Abstract DOI
C. E. Cressler (2011) Multi-trait selection and the evolution of the integrated phenotype. Ph.D. thesis, University of Michigan.  Abstract URL
S. Shrestha, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2011) Statistical inference for multi-pathogen systems. PLoS Computational Biology 7(8): e1002135.  Abstract DOI
J. S. Lavine, A. A. King, and O. N. Bjørnstad (2011) Natural immune boosting in pertussis dynamics and the potential for long-term vaccine failure. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A. 108(17): 7259–7264.  Abstract DOI
D. He, E. L. Ionides, and A. A. King (2010) Plug-and-play inference for disease dynamics: measles in large and small populations as a case study. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 7: 271–283.  Abstract DOI
C. E. Cressler, A. A. King, and E. E. Werner (2010) Interactions between behavioral and life-history trade-offs in the evolution of integrated predator-defense plasticity. American Naturalist 176(3): 276–288.  Abstract DOI
P. Rohani, X. Zhong, and A. A. King (2010) Contact network structure explains the changing epidemiology of pertussis. Science 330(6006): 982–985.  Abstract DOI
P. Rohani and A. A. King (2010) Never mind the length, feel the quality: the impact of long-term epidemiological data sets on theory, application and policy. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 25(10): 611–618.  Abstract DOI
A. A. King, S. Shrestha, E. T. Harvill, and O. N. Bjørnstad (2009) Evolution of acute infections and the invasion-persistence trade-off. American Naturalist 173(4): 446–455.  Abstract DOI
S. Shrestha (2009) Different levels of host-pathogen interactions and consequences for the pathogen life history evolution. Ph.D. thesis, University of Michigan.  Abstract URL
A. A. King, E. L. Ionides, M. Pascual, and M. J. Bouma (2008) Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics. Nature 454(7206): 877–880.  Abstract DOI
E. L. Ionides, C. Bretó, and A. A. King (2007) Modeling disease dynamics: cholera as a case study. In: Statistical Advances in the Biomedical Sciences (edited by A. Biswas, S. Datta, J. Fine, and M. Segal)  DOI
E. L. Ionides, C. Bretó, and A. A. King (2006) Inference for nonlinear dynamical systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A. 103(49): 18438–18443.  Abstract DOI

Selected publications by lab alumni.


© 2017 Aaron A. King
2051 Kraus Natural Sciences Building
830 North University Avenue
Ann Arbor MI 48109-1048 USA