The King Laboratory
of Theoretical Ecology & Evolution
at the University of Michigan


Selected Publications.

Abstract R. A. Smith, E. L. Ionides, and A. A. King (2017) Infectious disease dynamics inferred from genetic data via sequential Monte Carlo. Molecular Biology and Evolution 34(8): 2065–2084.  DOI
Abstract E. L. Ionides, C. Breto, J. Park, R. A. Smith, and A. A. King (2017) Monte Carlo profile confidence intervals for dynamic systems. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 14: 20170126.  DOI
Abstract A. A. King, D. Nguyen, and E. L. Ionides (2016) Statistical inference for partially observed Markov processes via the R package pomp. Journal of Statistical Software 69(12): 1–43.  DOI
Abstract M. Domenech de Cellès, F. M. G. Magpantay, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2016) The pertussis enigma: reconciling epidemiology, immunology and evolution. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B 283(1822): 20152309.  DOI
Abstract F. M. G. Magpantay, M. Domenech de Cellès, P. Rohani, and A. A. King (2016) Pertussis immunity and epidemiology: mode and duration of vaccine-induced immunity. Parasitology 143: 835–849.  DOI
Abstract T. Baracchini, A. A. King, M. J. Bouma, X. Rodó, E. Bertuzzo, and M. Pascual (2016) Seasonality in cholera dynamics: a rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns in endemic areas. Advances in Water Resources  DOI
Abstract J. Perez-Saez, A. A. King, A. Rinaldo, M. Yunus, A. S. Faruque, and M. Pascual (2016) Climate-driven endemic cholera is modulated by human mobility in a megacity. Advances in Water Resources  DOI
Abstract A. A. King, M. Domenech de Cellès, F. M. G. Magpantay, and P. Rohani (2015) Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B 282(1806): 20150347.  DOI
Abstract C. E. Cressler, M. A. Butler, and A. A. King (2015) Detecting adaptive evolution in phylogenetic comparative analysis using the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model. Systematic Biology 64(6): 953–968.  DOI
Abstract M. Martinez-Bakker, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2015) Unraveling the transmission ecology of polio. PLoS Biology 13(6): e1002172.  DOI
Abstract S. Shrestha, O. N. Bjørnstad, and A. A. King (2014) Evolution of acuteness in pathogen metapopulations: conflicts between “classical” and invasion-persistence trade-offs. Theoretical Ecology 7(3): 299–311.  DOI
Abstract M. Domenech de Cellès, M. A. Riolo, F. M. G. Magpantay, P. Rohani, and A. A. King (2014) Epidemiological evidence for herd immunity induced by acellular pertussis vaccines. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A. 111(7): E716–E717.  DOI
Abstract F. Magpantay, M. Riolo, M. de Cellès, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2014) Epidemiological consequences of imperfect vaccines for immunizing infections. SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 74: 1810–1830.  DOI
Abstract M. Martinez-Bakker, K. M. Bakker, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2014) Human birth seasonality: latitudinal gradient and interplay with childhood disease dynamics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B 281(1783): 20132438.  DOI
Abstract R. C. Reiner, Jr, S. T. Stoddard, B. M. Forshey, A. A. King, A. M. Ellis, A. L. Lloyd, K. C. Long, C. Rocha, S. Vilcarromero, H. Astete, I. Bazan, A. Lenhart, G. M. Vazquez-Prokopec, V. A. Paz-Soldan, P. J. McCall, U. Kitron, J. P. Elder, E. S. Halsey, A. C. Morrison, T. J. Kochel, and T. W. Scott (2014) Time-varying, serotype-specific force of infection of dengue virus. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A. 111(26): E2694–E2702.  DOI
Abstract J. S. Lavine, A. A. King, V. Andreasen, and O. N. Bjørnstad (2013) Immune boosting explains regime-shifts in prevaccine-era pertussis dynamics. PLoS ONE 8(8): e72086.  DOI
S. D. Peacor and C. E. Cressler (2013) The implications of adaptive prey behaviour for ecological communities: a review of current theory. In: Trait-Mediated Indirect Interactions: Linking Evolution, Community, and Ecosystem (edited by T. Ohgushi, O. Schmitz, and R. D. Holt) 131–160. 
Abstract M. A. Riolo, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2013) Can vaccine legacy explain the British pertussis resurgence?. Vaccine 31(49): 5903–5908.  DOI
Abstract R. C. Reiner, A. A. King, M. Emch, M. Yunus, A. S. G. Faruque, and M. Pascual (2012) Highly localized sensitivity to climate forcing drives endemic cholera in a megacity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A. 109(6): 2033–2036.  DOI
Abstract C. E. Cressler (2011) Multi-trait selection and the evolution of the integrated phenotype. Ph.D. thesis, University of Michigan.  URL
Abstract S. Shrestha, A. A. King, and P. Rohani (2011) Statistical inference for multi-pathogen systems. PLoS Computational Biology 7(8): e1002135.  DOI
Abstract J. S. Lavine, A. A. King, and O. N. Bjørnstad (2011) Natural immune boosting in pertussis dynamics and the potential for long-term vaccine failure. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A. 108(17): 7259–7264.  DOI
Abstract D. He, E. L. Ionides, and A. A. King (2010) Plug-and-play inference for disease dynamics: measles in large and small populations as a case study. Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 7: 271–283.  DOI
Abstract P. Rohani, X. Zhong, and A. A. King (2010) Contact network structure explains the changing epidemiology of pertussis. Science 330(6006): 982–985.  DOI
Abstract C. E. Cressler, A. A. King, and E. E. Werner (2010) Interactions between behavioral and life-history trade-offs in the evolution of integrated predator-defense plasticity. American Naturalist 176(3): 276–288.  DOI
Abstract P. Rohani and A. A. King (2010) Never mind the length, feel the quality: the impact of long-term epidemiological data sets on theory, application and policy. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 25(10): 611–618.  DOI
Abstract A. A. King, S. Shrestha, E. T. Harvill, and O. N. Bjørnstad (2009) Evolution of acute infections and the invasion-persistence trade-off. American Naturalist 173(4): 446–455.  DOI
Abstract S. Shrestha (2009) Different levels of host-pathogen interactions and consequences for the pathogen life history evolution. Ph.D. thesis, University of Michigan.  URL
Abstract A. A. King, E. L. Ionides, M. Pascual, and M. J. Bouma (2008) Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics. Nature 454(7206): 877–880.  DOI
E. L. Ionides, C. Bretó, and A. A. King (2007) Modeling disease dynamics: cholera as a case study. In: Statistical Advances in the Biomedical Sciences (edited by A. Biswas, S. Datta, J. Fine, and M. Segal)  DOI
Abstract E. L. Ionides, C. Bretó, and A. A. King (2006) Inference for nonlinear dynamical systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A. 103(49): 18438–18443.  DOI

Selected publications by lab alumni.


© 2017 Aaron A. King
2051 Kraus Natural Sciences Building
830 North University Avenue
Ann Arbor MI 48109-1048 USA