The King Laboratory
of Theoretical Ecology & Evolution
at the University of Michigan


Exact phylodynamic likelihood via structured Markov genealogy processes

A. A. King, Q. Lin, and E. L. Ionides
Theoretical Population Biology 171:  79–105, 2026.
Structured Markov genealogy processes for phylodynamic inference

We show that each member of a broad class of Markovian population models induces a unique stochastic process on the space of genealogies. We construct this genealogy process and derive exact expressions for the likelihood of an observed genealogy in terms of a filter equation, the structure of which is completely determined by the population model. We show that existing phylodynamic methods based on the coalescent and linear birth-death processes are special cases. We derive some properties of filter equations and describe a class of algorithms that can be used to numerically solve them. Importantly, because these algorithms rely only on simulation of the population model, they retain the plug-and-play property upon which simulation-based inference depends. Our results open the door to statistically efficient likelihood-based phylodynamic inference for a much wider class of models than has been possible.


The official version of the paper is here.   Please contact Prof. King if you'd like a reprint.

© 2026 Aaron A. King
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