Aaron A. King, Ph.D.

Nelson G. Hairston Collegiate Professor of Ecology, Evolutionary Biology,
Complex Systems, and Mathematics, University of Michigan
External Professor, Santa Fe Institute
Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science

Exact phylodynamic likelihood via structured Markov genealogy processes

A. A. King, Q. Lin, and E. L. Ionides
arXiv  2405.17032, 2026.

We show that each member of a broad class of Markovian population models induces a unique stochastic process on the space of genealogies. We construct this genealogy process and derive exact expressions for the likelihood of an observed genealogy in terms of a filter equation, the structure of which is completely determined by the population model. We show that existing phylodynamic methods based on the coalescent and linear birth-death processes are special cases. We derive some properties of filter equations and describe a class of algorithms that can be used to numerically solve them. Importantly, because these algorithms rely only on simulation of the population model, they retain the plug-and-play property upon which simulation-based inference depends. Our results open the door to statistically efficient likelihood-based phylodynamic inference for a much wider class of models than is currently possible.


The official version of the paper is here.   Please contact Prof. King if you'd like a reprint.

© 2026 Aaron A. King
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